
The
Convergence Commencement?
by
Rohit
Shukla
November
18, 2002
With
more digital content available online, is convergence
renewing or is it long dead? Maybe it's time to retire
the word itself.
Convergence
is a buzzword that has rapidly faded from the lips
of charlatan and mogul alike. Yet it was the basis
for the mega-mergers in the entertainment industry,
which have unraveled one by one over the course of
the last few months. And it was the foundation of
market-busting efforts by technology providers seeking
to accelerate the introduction of multi-capable computing
into the home only to be burned by excess across the
board, by telecommunications companies who nearly
destroyed themselves on accommodating the new demand
that the convergence future was bringing their way,
of upstarts who dared to open the creative platform
and product to a new audience and saw that audience
wilt from boredom, done in by Internet Attention Deficit
Disorder.
The
promise, you will recall, was the coming together,
in a large and predictable scheme, of computing, communications
and entertainment. With broadband poised to become
a commodity, we were told, and with quantum leaps
of computing power now available to the average consumer,
and with new possibilities for the creation, manipulation,
presentation and transport of content between increasingly
connected people around the planet, a new era of disruption
would be unleashed. The next few years, after this
audacious vision was first introduced--and then embraced
by virtually every technology executive and entertainment
guru--saw a raft of acquisitions, asset reallocations
and public market debuts, and the dawn of a whole
new industry, "new media", predicated on
the creation of new content.
The crowning
jewel was the acquisition of Time Warner, the entertainment industry
behemoth, by America Online (AOL), the lowly non-broadband ISP. Elliot
Borin, writing
in this issue of Larta VOX observes that AOL is now falling on its
own petard, quite possibly unable for legal reasons to entice customers
to its vision for convergence, which in its parlance means controlling
both content and distribution.
Meanwhile,
the whole shebang is in deep doo-doo: telecommunications
companies, overestimating consumer demand and appetite
for media-rich content, overpaid for wireless auctions
and underestimated the cost of upgrading and installing
infrastructure; the technology companies, hardware
and software sectors alike were similarly caught unawares
by the fall in consumer demand, and the realities
of a brutal business slowdown finally caught up with
the dream. It is now something of a nightmare, from
which Vivendi Universal has awakened, screaming, shedding
its entertainment assets. Disney preceded this binge
by deciding much earlier to allow its great Internet
flirtation to fizzle out. Even Rupert Murdoch has
witnessed the downsizing of his dream, as his varied
media interests have not succeeded in meshing together
a seamless business.
It
seems clearer today that the position of large behemoths
does not insulate them from the vicissitudes of the
technology or from the great fact of our time, that
business and individual consumers, when faced with
a plethora of choices, and spoiled by the low price
points of content on the Web, are loathe to become
new, high-paying customers. Thus the ROI case for
the indulgent schemes of convergence cannot easily
be made.
And
yet, both in small and in profound ways, the promise
of convergence itself is finding its way to consumers
without the mediation of the powerhouses of content.
When Eisner accused the technology companies a few
months ago of conspiring to undercut the proprietary
interests of content producers, he was basically putting
a finger in the eye of the greatest technology explosion
in consumer history. Consumers have become adept digital
downloaders, game players, buyers of personal gadgetry
geared to personalized experience--the promise of
"what you want, when you want it." If ever
there was a slogan for the convergence movement, this
is it.
Witness
the music industry's desperate struggle with the online
music platforms in a battle that cannot easily be
won in the courts, because the digital genie is out
of the bottle, and it cannot be put back. Convergence,
to large entertainment companies, is an opportunity
to leverage multiple content assets on new platforms
and gain new consumers along the way. Convergence,
to millions of consumers, represents liberation from
that very same model, allowing them to store their
favorite songs and artists, downloaded from the Web,
in their own way, and even potentially to manipulate
them for their own purposes. This individualistic
expression of personal taste and preferences is a
powerful new force, and one that calls for radical
new content, extended to all spheres of the entertainment
experience (indeed to all corners of our content world).
So,
Movielink, taking a page from those battles, has embraced
that future, confident that the need for personalized
experience is a new, credible one in our new world.
Despite technical and convenience issues (remember
the first VCR's were clunky and difficult monstrosities),
what the company will gain is a greater degree of
savvy, and along the way, will establish a platform
and a standard that promises to be convenient and
competitive. Meanwhile, the challenge to build a simple,
effective and compelling platform is considerable,
in a time when all consumers are creators, when they
face an explosion of choice, when chat represents
a powerful new form of social interaction, and when
the old arbiters of taste are now either irrelevant
or worse, curiosities.
It
is time to retire the word. We are heading towards
convergence, and we may not like it, but like the
"moving finger", we are compelled to "move
on", regardless of "piety (nor) wit."