Ask Errol Dunningham what he wants for Christmas, and
he'll tick off the names of dozens of video games.
"I can't afford
all the games I want," said the 24-year-old West Los Angeles airport
security guard. "I'd say the list is longer than ever."
It sure is.
For gamers such as Dunningham, this is a bumper crop as publishers churn
out a record number of titles -- more than 1,200 by year's end. For game
makers, however, competition for attention and retail shelf space
represents one of the fiercest fights in the industry's relatively brief
history.
Publishers are putting out an unprecedented number of
console games to cash in on the immense popularity of next-generation game
machines such as Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 2, Nintendo Co.'s GameCube and
Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox. By year's end, more than 700 console games will
have been released, up from 312 games in 1998, according to International
Development Group, a consulting firm in San Francisco.
Throw in
more than 500 new computer games, and shelves will be bulging. Console
software sales in North America are expected to grow more than 25% this
year to a record $5.8 billion, but each publisher's piece of the pie may
be thinner than ever because there are so many games.
"We're set to
have a record number of console [titles] chasing store shelves," said
Simon Price, analyst at IDG. "Where are they all going to fit into the
store?"
Target Corp. is stocking 40% more titles this year than
last in its 1,148 stores, said Douglas Kline, a spokesman for the
Minneapolis-based retailer. "We expect this to be one of the better years
for video game sales," Kline said. "That's why we're offering more choices
this year."
But Target, like most retailers, must still pick and
choose what it stocks.
"Competition for shelf space has
intensified," said Edward Williams, an analyst with Gerard Klauer
Mattison, an investment firm holding a game industry conference today in
New York. "If you are a secondary publisher, it's going to be difficult
for you to gain distribution for your products."
Overall, games are
a bright spot in an otherwise grim market for consumer electronics. Sales
of consoles continue to be brisk. About 15% of U.S. households are
expected to have a current-generation game console by year's end,
according to publisher estimates. Sony is expected to have sold 15.3
million PlayStation 2s, and Microsoft and Nintendo are forecast to move
about 4 million machines each in North America.
With so many
households seeded with consoles, game publishers are tripping over
themselves to release games to play on them.
The most anticipated
title of all this holiday season is "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City" for PS2.
The game is expected to sell nearly as well as its blockbuster
predecessor, "Grand Theft Auto 3," which sold 8 million copies worldwide
since its debut last year.
Initial shipments of "Vice City" will
top 1 million copies, Williams said. Many of those have already been
snapped up. Stores such as an Electronics Boutique in Santa Monica were
sold out of the game Tuesday, the day it hit store shelves.
"You
can combine the buzz for all the games on GameCube and Xbox, and you
wouldn't come up with the same level of buzz that 'Vice City' is
generating," said Dan Hsu, editor of Electronic Gaming Monthly in San
Francisco. "That game is just going to sell crazy
numbers."
Although there's ample shelf space for other titles that
are expected to be big sellers, such as "Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 4" and
"WWE Smackdown! Shut Your Mouth," titles without big marketing budgets or
grass-roots fan buzz will have a tough time getting any
attention.
Still, the hope among publishers is that they are
sitting on a sleeper hit that will catch everyone by surprise. Last year,
that was "Grand Theft Auto 3."
"We're in a tough spot right now,"
said Brian Farrell, who has been chief executive of Calabasas-based game
developer THQ Inc. for eight years. "It's two months before Christmas, and
a lot can change over the next eight weeks."
For more Times
computer game coverage, go to www .latimes.com/games.



